"Issue Number 3"- In fantasy baseball, who is more valuable, the hitter or the pitcher?

This week the Fantasy Man asks, "Which fantasy player is more valuable, the hitter or the pitcher? Say you are doing a trade straight up, who is more valuable overall?"

TP's Column:

This a very good question Fantasy Man!

I'm going to begin this column by saying that there are so many factors that weigh into trades that are made, that in many instances, it doesn't matter who's more valuable. It only matters that the trade is making both teams better. You have to use what you have available to get what you need. You have to have both hitting and pitching to win. Both are very important and are very valuable commodities to the fantasy manager. However, if I had to choose which is the more valuable commodity, I would have to say that the pitcher is more valuable, for two major reasons.

The first reason pitchers are more valuable is simple. Supply vs. Demand.

When playing fantasy baseball, one thing that you always have to consider is supply vs. demand....At positions where depth is thin, you have to put more importance on finding quality players to fill those positions. You have to give more priority to these positions and draft players earlier at those positions to secure players that are going to be productive. Since not every manager will have a quality guy playing in that spot, you can gain an advantage by being one of the few that has a quality player. Lets face it, when it comes to finding quality pitchers that win games, have high strikeout potential, and a low ERA, there just aren't enough of them to go around. There are far more hitters that will have a good average, hit homeruns, and score runs. I've noticed that in my fantasy league this season, guys are fighting over quality starting pitching and no one's really worried about improving their team on the hitting side. There are enough hitters to go around, AND there are quality guys sitting on the waiver wire that can be picked up and started if one of your hitters gets hurt. On the flip side, there are NOT enough good pitchers to go around, and there are no QUALITY guys sitting on the waiver wire that can help you if a pitcher gets hurt. Quality pitchers carry more value simply because they are in short supply. If you take a look at your fantasy team right now, chances are that you have good solid players batting in every offensive position. Of course, some of them are hot right now and some are killing you right now, but they are all solid players. But, if you look at your pitchers, chances are there are at least of couple of average pitchers on your roster that you rely on to get you innings each week. Chances are you are spending a large portion of your fantasy research time making decisions regarding who you are going to pitch on certain days if you're in a daily league, based on matchups, etc. but you are not spending near that amount of time deciding which outfielders you're going to play that day. Quality pitching is more difficult to get, therefore it is more valuable.

The second reason is the discrepency between the amount of stats put up on a weekly basis by a hitter vs. a pitcher.

A hitter is in the lineup every day. If he has an off day, he can bounce back and still make his overall numbers for the week look good. He may go 0-4 on monday, but then bounce back and still get you 10 hits for the week. A pitcher will only give you a couple of appearances each week at best, and if he has a bad start, it hurts your overall numbers more because he's not in your lineup every day. If you have a nine man batting lineup every day, that is 63 starts made by hitters each week. You are probably getting close to 200 AB's out of your hitters each week. You are probably getting 15-20 appearances MAX out of your starting pitching and relief pitching combined. We are getting the same amount of stat weight in our fantasy matchup put into a lot fewer starts by pitchers. Therefore, every bad start a pitcher makes carries much more weight than the bad day for a hitter. This makes it much more important to make sure that every pitcher in your lineup is consistently putting up good numbers. You can get away with a batter or two having an off week and still put up good looking overall numbers for the week, but if you have a couple of pitchers go 3 innings and give up 9 runs, your pitching numbers for the week are a mess. There's not as much opportunity to bounce back from that, and adding that to the fact that there is equal weight placed on pitching and hitting in our weekly matchups, it makes it more important to have consistent, quality pitching.

There are other reasons that I think that pitching is more valuable, but these are the two biggest.

For me, one of the things I always try to accomplish each season is to have depth in regards to pitching. Every fantasy manager is always looking to upgrade their pitching, so if you are the guy that has the most pitching, guys will come to you and offer you some pretty good trade deals. There is no better trade bait than a quality pitcher, whether it is a starter or closer. If I made a post on my league page today that said that I have Jake Peavy and Todd Helton available for trade in return for an outfielder, I would get 7 trade offers for Peavy and 1 for Helton. The reason is that all fantasy managers are always trying to upgrade their pitching, but they are not always looking to upgrade at 1st base. Most fantasy managers have at least 2 first baseman that they are happy with and are everyday starters, but everyone is always looking for pitching. I try to make my team deep at pitching, first in the draft, then by getting steals from the waiver wire, and then I can use these bargaining tools to fill any other holes in my team.

From past experience I can tell you that you are in much better shape going into a trade deal if you have quality pitching to give and need a good hitter. It is much easier to work out a deal when you are the one giving up the pitching. If you are sitting on a ton of good hitting and need pitching, you can still get deals done, but it is much more difficult to get a manager to part with pitching than it is hitting, and you might not always get a pitcher of the caliber you need in return for your hitter. Guys just don't like to give up pitching. At least, not in the leagues that I've been associated with.

Well, that's it for now. Thanks for reading! Feel free to post comments, ask a question on the tag board, or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com with any questions or ideas for upcoming issues.

TP

JDIZZLE

Pitcher.....few studs are few and far between.

"Issue Number 2"- Three Minor League Players who could make an impact in the near future.....

This week, The Fantasy Man asks, "Who are three players that are currently playing in the minors that fantasy managers need to keep a hard eye on to possibly "Grab and Stash" or be ready to pick up when the time is right?"

JDizzle's Minor League Picks

Fantasy Finders for the Midseason

Hey all, I love this question, this is my bread and butter. One of my favorite things about the offseason is seeing all of the offseason moves made to make room for upcoming studs from the minors...Josh Barfield in San Diego (trading Loretta), Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder in Milwaukee (trading Overbay), and Ian Kinsler in Texas (Soriano to Washington).

There are two major kinds of AAA studs in fantasy baseball. There are the studs that are impressive in the minors and are highly touted but haven't had that break out season in the majors yet; or there are the players who are not big names but make huge fantasy impacts just because of the teams they are on. Dallas McPherson in LA, David DeJesus in KC, and Alexis Rios in Toronto are all examples of the first kind of second-tier fantasy players. But my three players for this questions are chosen based on a myriad of factors. Before I begin, let me give my three prospects who are sure to make a fantasy impact on your fantasy roster before October.

1) Stephen Drew-Arizona Diamondbacks, currently playing for the Tucson Sidewinders (AAA)

2) Melky Cabrera-New York Yankees, just called up from Columbus

3) Anthony Reyes-St. Louis Cardinals, currently playing for the Memphis Redbirds (AAA)

The three things that I look at when coming up with this list is: opportunity to make the club, availability of position openings, and sheer talent.

Stephen Drew is an absolute stud. In 35 games, the more highly touted of the Drew brothers is hitting .299 with 6 homers and 22 RBIs. Here is my take on him...Craig Counsell is currently playing shortstop for the surprising Arizona Diamondbacks. Counsell, while serviceable at shortstop, will not last the season. Drew is playing great and is the future of this D'back team. Even their first round pick, Justin Upton, was moved to centerfield this season in single-A because Arizona knew Drew would be handling shortstop duties in the Arizona sun for years to come. If you are in an NL-only league, you need to grab him as soon as he becomes available, especially due to the fact that the NL shortstop position isn't extremely deep. If you are in a deep 10-team league, grab and stash him if you have the space.

Melky Cabrera has been on my list for a long time. When Sheffield went down, his fantasy value increased, but when Hideki Matsui injured his wrist, Cabrera's value increased exponentially. Even before he was called up, he was on this list and know that he has arrived he is a must-have in most leagues. Through 31 games he was hitting .385 with 4 homers and 24 RBIs. He can play left and right and is strong kid with plenty of pop and a good eye in the box to boot (9 k's in 122 AB's). With that Yankees lineup surrounding him, he is bound to get some pitches to swing at. And when he gets ahold of 'em, watch out!

Anthony Reyes is my 3rd pick. Being a Cardinals fan, he had to be on my list. While only 1-1 for Memphis he has 40 k's in 44.1 innings pitched. He had a great spring and narrowly missed making the team. Now with Sir Sidney on the DL and the Cardinals in possible need of starting pitching help, Anthony Reyes could be in the rotation sooner than most realize. Mulder, Marquis, Ponson and Suppan are all free agents after this year and any of them could be dealt at the deadline for some outfield help, especially if the deal is sweet enough. Reyes has electric stuff and already has a little MLB experience under his belt. Don't count this stud out and get him if you need late season help at the starting pitching position.

I'm out......The JDizzle

listen to emery......

TP's 3 Minor League Picks

I love this question Fantasy Man! There are a few guys that I've been watching closely lately. I'm going to share three of the guys that I've spent the most time looking at recently. My list includes two pitchers and a hitter, partially due to the fact that I spend a lot more time looking for pitching talent rather than hitting talent. Quality pitching is hard to find so it requires more effort and number crunching. I'm going to begin this issue with a player that I have been watching since 2002 and I think is ready to make an impact this season in Major League Baseball.......As a matter of fact, he just got his opportunity.....

Cole Hamels is a starting pitcher in the Phillies organization and actually made his first major league start Friday against Cincinnati. He pitched 5 innings, giving up 1 hit and striking out 7, while walking 5 batters and allowing no runs. Cole is the Phillies top pitching prospect and a player that they feel will be a quality starting pitcher for years to come, IF he can stay healthy, which has been a problem since he was drafted. He has three above average pitches, including a fastball in the low 90's, a quality curveball, and a devastating change up. This season, he has made 7 combined starts for single A Clearwater and AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre, posting a 1.05 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, allowing 26 hits while walking 10, and striking out 65 batters in 43.2 innings. He has simply dominated the AAA batters, allowing only 1 run in 23.1 innings while striking out 36 batters in 3 starts. He also put up a 14 strikeout effort in a seven inning outing, and pitched one complete game shutout.

I like him for a few reasons. One, he's a lefty and I'm always looking for quality lefties. Two, he has the ability to locate pitches well and change speeds very well. Three, he has three pitches that are above average. Putting it simply, he has good stuff clear across the board.

The downside......He's been injured a few times already in his short career. He suffered from back spasms last season as well as breaking his wrist. He's also had some minor elbow problems.

IF Cole can stay healthy, he will be a solid pitcher for years to come........Many experts are saying to "grab and stash" him NOW, even in shallow mixed leagues. I think that he's worth a look, as he has the ability to make an impact, and with pitching being thin in Philly, he'll probably get a decent opportunity to show us what he's made of. I know I'll continue to watch him and wait patiently for the right time to snatch him up. The time may be very soon.

Another starting pitcher that I've been eyeballing is Chad Billingsley who is in the Dodger's minor league system. He's playing for AAA-Las Vegas this season, but could possibly be in the Dodger rotation as early as the All-Star break. He's 3-0 this season in the Pacific Coast League with an ERA of 2.04. He has 40 strikeouts in 34.1 innings and has allowed 23 hits. He's only 21 (will turn 22 in July) but has shown significant progress in terms of command of his pitches. I've been watching this kid for the last 2 seasons and I think he's about ready for the jump to the majors, and that's saying a lot for a kid his age. His arsenal includes a fastball in the low 90's, a good slider, a curveball, and a changeup. His changeup still needs a little refining, as well as his control, but he's making steady progress with both. I like him because he's shown a good K/IP ratio as well as a good K/BB ratio. When scouting young pitching talent, these two categories tell you a lot about their ability to dominate hitters and demonstrate good control. I'm sold on him and I eagerly await his arrival into the bigs.

My third player is a player that I don't necessarily think will make an impact this season, but will in the near future. Brandon Wood is a 21 year old power hitting shortstop with good size who is in the Angels organization, playing for AA-Arkansas right now. He has gotten my attention because he is a rare commodity, a shortstop that can hit for power. He has the potential to become a major league player as early as next season. His biggest downfall is that he strikes out too much, but he should improve these numbers as he progresses to the majors. Right now he's batting .275 with 8 home runs and 11 doubles in 131 AB so far this season for the Travelers. He's also driven in 28 RBI's already. I'm always looking for good players for the future, and this guy is impressing me. He catches my eye because he plays at a position that doesn't normally put up a lot of power numbers, but he can. There are never more than a handful of power hitting shortstops in the big leagues at one time, and this guy fits into that category. I will be keeping a close eye on his development, and you should too.

Well, that's it for now. Feel free to post comments, ask questions on the tag board, or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com

TP

"Issue Number 1"- Who is the better hitter, Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez?

Issue Number 1- Pujols or ARod? (Question supplied by Mikey at the Fantasy Man Show)

We're going to start this blog off with an issue that every fantasy baseball player dealt with when planning for the draft this season. This is a debate that will probably return before the draft next season, and the season after that. Who is a better hitter? Pujols or ARod? If you were one of the lucky players who drew a number 1 pick, who would you take? Which stud would you choose to carry your team this season?

Before I get into who I think is better and why, I just have to say that I think we're comparing green apples to green apples in this debate. These two hitters probably went 1 and 2 in your draft, with ARod going first some of the time and Pujols going first the rest of the time. No one's going to complain about having either of these guys, as long as you have one of them. I think these two guys are the best two hitters that MLB has to offer right now, and before it's over, both of them will be in the Hall of Fame.

Ok, so we're comparing the best of the best. So, who is the best? There are a number of factors that have to be considered. Things such as the supporting cast around them, their ages, growth potential, injury risk, the positions that they play, and how deep those positions are for fantasy owners during the draft. I think we should also take a look at what the numbers they've put up so far tell us about the future.

First, lets discuss the supporting cast. I think the overall lineup of the Yankees is better than that of the Cardinals, but not by enough to be a big factor. Both guys are studs in good lineups and will have the potential for many RBI opportunities as well as the potential to score many runs. The Yankees and Cardinals are two of the best teams in baseball and both have the potential to score a lot of runs, and I think that ARod and Pujols will be major factors in their respective lineups.

Next, let's discuss age. Pujols turned 26 in January while ARod will turn 31 in July. I know that I felt older at 31 than I did at 26 and while this is not going to be a huge factor in deciding who to take, it has to be considered. Players become more prone to injury as they get older so one would assume that ARod would have a greater potential for injury than Pujols would.

Now let's talk about growth potential. Both of these guys are great players, but with Pujols being 5 years younger than ARod, you'd think that he'd have the better potential for growth. ARod has played 10 full seasons to Pujols' 5. He's 5 years older and in the prime of his career. I see his numbers staying where they are for the next couple of years and then start to decline. Pujols, who has been stellar through his first 5 seasons, has the potential to get even better, and that's scary. If he shows the same growth that ARod showed over his second 5 years in the league, you will be amazed at the numbers you will see. I will get into that shortly.

Now let's discuss the positions that they play. Most experts agree that 1st base is a little easier on the body than 3rd base is. Combine the fact that ARod is 5 years older and playing a position that is harder on the body, and you can only conclude that ARod is more likely to get injured. You can, however, make a case that 1st base is a position in which a player is more likely to be involved in a collision with a player running down the line. We all saw what happened to Derek Lee in the recent past.

As far as fantasy depth goes, I think we would all agree that 1st base is a deeper position than 3rd base when drafting talent for your fantasy team. However, 3rd base is not a position that one would call "weak", so regardless of whether you take a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman with your first pick, there will be guys left to be taken at either position when the pick comes back around to you. You may be sitting a little better if you were to take the stud 3rd baseman first, but not by much.

Now let's get into the numbers. Since Pujols has only been in the league for 5 years to ARod's 10 years of service, I decided to take a hard look at ARods numbers in two lump sums. I divided his stats into two blocks. His first 5 years and his second 5 years. During ARod's first full 5 years in the league, he hit 184 home runs. During his second 5 years, he hit 240. That's a growth of 56 home runs the second 5 seasons of his career. That gives him a total of 424 home runs in his first full 10 seasons in the league. Add the 5 he hit in the 48 games he played in '95 and you have a total of 429 coming into this season.

Pujols has hit 201 home runs in his first 5 seasons. If he were to show the same growth over the next 5 years as ARod did, he would hit 257 home runs over the next 5 seasons. That would give him a total of 458 home runs in the same 10 year stretch that ARod hit 424. That's a difference of 34 home runs.

Now let's talk batting average. In ARod's first 10 seasons in the majors, he's hit .300 or less 5 times. He's a career .306 hitter at the time of this printing. Pujols has never hit below .314, and has hit .329 or better in 4 of his first 5 seasons and has a career batting average of .332 at the time of this printing. Pujols is also on pace to score 50 more runs in his first 10 seasons than ARod has.

Check out the difference in double production. Over ARod's 10 year career, he has hit 342 doubles. Pujols has hit 231 in half the time. Double that total and he's projected to hit 462 doubles over the same 10 year period as ARod. That's a difference of 120 doubles. That's a big difference for fantasy players who use 2B, TB, Slug Pct, OPS, etc.......That tells me that Pujols hits more line drives that can split outfielders than ARod does. ARod gets more air under the ball and some of them get caught. Pujols hits them flat and hard.

The biggest factor in my choice of Pujols over ARod would be the strikeout totals. Pujols in on a pace to strikeout 688 times over his first 10 seasons. ARod has struck out 1288 times over his first 10 seasons. That's a difference of 600 K's! There is no doubt who puts the ball in play at a better clip. Advantage Pujols!

Personally, I would not be disappointed if either of these guys were to land on my fantasy team. They are both stellar hitters and play on good teams that score a lot of runs. While I think that ARod is one of the best hitters the league has to offer, I'd have to say that Pujols is, without a doubt, the best. When the pick comes to me during the draft, if Pujols is still on the board, he's mine. He's at the top of my list, and should be for a long time to come.

Thanks for reading! Feel free to post comments or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com

Have a good one!
TP a.k.a. Commish


JDIZZLE'S TAKE ON THE MATTER

Let me start off by saying to Tony...."thanks for leaving me something to say." When I heard what this week's topic would be, I was mulling everything you said in my head....except for one thing: supporting cast. While Pujols and AROD both have great supporting casts, I think that the organization for which Pujols plays is going to be better for him in the long run. The St. Louis Cardinals have a younger core of players surrounding Pujols than AROD does. This is going to cause Pujols to get more chances to swing the bat and thus, more chances to help his team AND YOUR FANTASY TEAM win. I will also say that AROD has been on 3 teams in his 10 year career and has had his moments of slumping...but Pujols is as consistent as they come. Look at AROD's average right now, for instance, compared to Pujols. If you are in a keeper league, Pujols is already kept, but if your league is considering moving to a keeper league and you have Pujols, make a ploy right now for a keeper league and keep Pujols for as long as he has a bat in his hand. I know the lucky stiff in our H2H Keeper League is drooling at the prospect of keeping him on his roster year in, year out. AROD's owner may be looking at having to drop him in a few years. That's my take, take it or leave it.

JDIZZLE (A.K.A. JDIZZLE)

A Little History.........

Before we get into the "issues", I just wanted to take a minute to tell you guys a little about us. We are three fantasy managers and very close friends who play in a very competitive head to head league. My name is Tony and I am the commissioner of the league and have been since it's inception 8 years ago. Jeremy joined the league in it's third season and has been a die hard manager ever since. Scott joined the league last season and stepped right in and proved that he was a top notch manager. We all absolutely love fantasy baseball! Since we all play in the same league, we will be able to give you "insight" in how managers see things that are happening in their leagues. In this blog, we hope to celebrate our differences and the competive spirit that we all share, as well to give fantasy players insight into issues that may be going on in their league......

The three of us are part of a 10 team head to head league. We use a 12/12 scoring system.
The offensive categories we use are: R, H, 2B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, K, TB, Ave, OBP, OPS
The pitching categories we use are: App, IP, W, L, S, H, ER, BB, K, TB, ERA, WHIP
The minimum pitching requirement for each week is 40 Innings.
We have a 24 man roster and 2 DL spots.
6 man playoffs with the 1 and 2 seeds getting first round byes.

We have tinkered with the categories a little over the years and have learned that this format requires us to create a well-balanced team. You must have a well-balanced team or you don't stand a chance of winning. You can put up all the power numbers you want, but if your team can't hit for average and steal bases, you will lose......You have to have hitters that can hit for power, ave, and can run......You also have to have pitchers that can give you quality starts, win games, and relief pitchers that can get you saves as well as help keep the ERA and WHIP down, while adding to the weekly strike out total. Our league stresses balance, and since all 10 managers in our league are cut-throat guru's, you have to stay on your toes to be successful. Everyone is looking to beat someone to the punch, and it demands a lot of research and time to stay at the top.......

Well, that's a little about us.........

Feel free to post comments and you can email us any questions that you have at fantasyozone@yahoo.com

Have a good one!
TP a.k.a. Commish