"Issue Number 1"- Who is the better hitter, Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez?
Issue Number 1- Pujols or ARod? (Question supplied by Mikey at the Fantasy Man Show)
We're going to start this blog off with an issue that every fantasy baseball player dealt with when planning for the draft this season. This is a debate that will probably return before the draft next season, and the season after that. Who is a better hitter? Pujols or ARod? If you were one of the lucky players who drew a number 1 pick, who would you take? Which stud would you choose to carry your team this season?
Before I get into who I think is better and why, I just have to say that I think we're comparing green apples to green apples in this debate. These two hitters probably went 1 and 2 in your draft, with ARod going first some of the time and Pujols going first the rest of the time. No one's going to complain about having either of these guys, as long as you have one of them. I think these two guys are the best two hitters that MLB has to offer right now, and before it's over, both of them will be in the Hall of Fame.
Ok, so we're comparing the best of the best. So, who is the best? There are a number of factors that have to be considered. Things such as the supporting cast around them, their ages, growth potential, injury risk, the positions that they play, and how deep those positions are for fantasy owners during the draft. I think we should also take a look at what the numbers they've put up so far tell us about the future.
First, lets discuss the supporting cast. I think the overall lineup of the Yankees is better than that of the Cardinals, but not by enough to be a big factor. Both guys are studs in good lineups and will have the potential for many RBI opportunities as well as the potential to score many runs. The Yankees and Cardinals are two of the best teams in baseball and both have the potential to score a lot of runs, and I think that ARod and Pujols will be major factors in their respective lineups.
Next, let's discuss age. Pujols turned 26 in January while ARod will turn 31 in July. I know that I felt older at 31 than I did at 26 and while this is not going to be a huge factor in deciding who to take, it has to be considered. Players become more prone to injury as they get older so one would assume that ARod would have a greater potential for injury than Pujols would.
Now let's talk about growth potential. Both of these guys are great players, but with Pujols being 5 years younger than ARod, you'd think that he'd have the better potential for growth. ARod has played 10 full seasons to Pujols' 5. He's 5 years older and in the prime of his career. I see his numbers staying where they are for the next couple of years and then start to decline. Pujols, who has been stellar through his first 5 seasons, has the potential to get even better, and that's scary. If he shows the same growth that ARod showed over his second 5 years in the league, you will be amazed at the numbers you will see. I will get into that shortly.
Now let's discuss the positions that they play. Most experts agree that 1st base is a little easier on the body than 3rd base is. Combine the fact that ARod is 5 years older and playing a position that is harder on the body, and you can only conclude that ARod is more likely to get injured. You can, however, make a case that 1st base is a position in which a player is more likely to be involved in a collision with a player running down the line. We all saw what happened to Derek Lee in the recent past.
As far as fantasy depth goes, I think we would all agree that 1st base is a deeper position than 3rd base when drafting talent for your fantasy team. However, 3rd base is not a position that one would call "weak", so regardless of whether you take a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman with your first pick, there will be guys left to be taken at either position when the pick comes back around to you. You may be sitting a little better if you were to take the stud 3rd baseman first, but not by much.
Now let's get into the numbers. Since Pujols has only been in the league for 5 years to ARod's 10 years of service, I decided to take a hard look at ARods numbers in two lump sums. I divided his stats into two blocks. His first 5 years and his second 5 years. During ARod's first full 5 years in the league, he hit 184 home runs. During his second 5 years, he hit 240. That's a growth of 56 home runs the second 5 seasons of his career. That gives him a total of 424 home runs in his first full 10 seasons in the league. Add the 5 he hit in the 48 games he played in '95 and you have a total of 429 coming into this season.
Pujols has hit 201 home runs in his first 5 seasons. If he were to show the same growth over the next 5 years as ARod did, he would hit 257 home runs over the next 5 seasons. That would give him a total of 458 home runs in the same 10 year stretch that ARod hit 424. That's a difference of 34 home runs.
Now let's talk batting average. In ARod's first 10 seasons in the majors, he's hit .300 or less 5 times. He's a career .306 hitter at the time of this printing. Pujols has never hit below .314, and has hit .329 or better in 4 of his first 5 seasons and has a career batting average of .332 at the time of this printing. Pujols is also on pace to score 50 more runs in his first 10 seasons than ARod has.
Check out the difference in double production. Over ARod's 10 year career, he has hit 342 doubles. Pujols has hit 231 in half the time. Double that total and he's projected to hit 462 doubles over the same 10 year period as ARod. That's a difference of 120 doubles. That's a big difference for fantasy players who use 2B, TB, Slug Pct, OPS, etc.......That tells me that Pujols hits more line drives that can split outfielders than ARod does. ARod gets more air under the ball and some of them get caught. Pujols hits them flat and hard.
The biggest factor in my choice of Pujols over ARod would be the strikeout totals. Pujols in on a pace to strikeout 688 times over his first 10 seasons. ARod has struck out 1288 times over his first 10 seasons. That's a difference of 600 K's! There is no doubt who puts the ball in play at a better clip. Advantage Pujols!
Personally, I would not be disappointed if either of these guys were to land on my fantasy team. They are both stellar hitters and play on good teams that score a lot of runs. While I think that ARod is one of the best hitters the league has to offer, I'd have to say that Pujols is, without a doubt, the best. When the pick comes to me during the draft, if Pujols is still on the board, he's mine. He's at the top of my list, and should be for a long time to come.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to post comments or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com
Have a good one!
TP a.k.a. Commish
JDIZZLE'S TAKE ON THE MATTER
Let me start off by saying to Tony...."thanks for leaving me something to say." When I heard what this week's topic would be, I was mulling everything you said in my head....except for one thing: supporting cast. While Pujols and AROD both have great supporting casts, I think that the organization for which Pujols plays is going to be better for him in the long run. The St. Louis Cardinals have a younger core of players surrounding Pujols than AROD does. This is going to cause Pujols to get more chances to swing the bat and thus, more chances to help his team AND YOUR FANTASY TEAM win. I will also say that AROD has been on 3 teams in his 10 year career and has had his moments of slumping...but Pujols is as consistent as they come. Look at AROD's average right now, for instance, compared to Pujols. If you are in a keeper league, Pujols is already kept, but if your league is considering moving to a keeper league and you have Pujols, make a ploy right now for a keeper league and keep Pujols for as long as he has a bat in his hand. I know the lucky stiff in our H2H Keeper League is drooling at the prospect of keeping him on his roster year in, year out. AROD's owner may be looking at having to drop him in a few years. That's my take, take it or leave it.
JDIZZLE (A.K.A. JDIZZLE)
We're going to start this blog off with an issue that every fantasy baseball player dealt with when planning for the draft this season. This is a debate that will probably return before the draft next season, and the season after that. Who is a better hitter? Pujols or ARod? If you were one of the lucky players who drew a number 1 pick, who would you take? Which stud would you choose to carry your team this season?
Before I get into who I think is better and why, I just have to say that I think we're comparing green apples to green apples in this debate. These two hitters probably went 1 and 2 in your draft, with ARod going first some of the time and Pujols going first the rest of the time. No one's going to complain about having either of these guys, as long as you have one of them. I think these two guys are the best two hitters that MLB has to offer right now, and before it's over, both of them will be in the Hall of Fame.
Ok, so we're comparing the best of the best. So, who is the best? There are a number of factors that have to be considered. Things such as the supporting cast around them, their ages, growth potential, injury risk, the positions that they play, and how deep those positions are for fantasy owners during the draft. I think we should also take a look at what the numbers they've put up so far tell us about the future.
First, lets discuss the supporting cast. I think the overall lineup of the Yankees is better than that of the Cardinals, but not by enough to be a big factor. Both guys are studs in good lineups and will have the potential for many RBI opportunities as well as the potential to score many runs. The Yankees and Cardinals are two of the best teams in baseball and both have the potential to score a lot of runs, and I think that ARod and Pujols will be major factors in their respective lineups.
Next, let's discuss age. Pujols turned 26 in January while ARod will turn 31 in July. I know that I felt older at 31 than I did at 26 and while this is not going to be a huge factor in deciding who to take, it has to be considered. Players become more prone to injury as they get older so one would assume that ARod would have a greater potential for injury than Pujols would.
Now let's talk about growth potential. Both of these guys are great players, but with Pujols being 5 years younger than ARod, you'd think that he'd have the better potential for growth. ARod has played 10 full seasons to Pujols' 5. He's 5 years older and in the prime of his career. I see his numbers staying where they are for the next couple of years and then start to decline. Pujols, who has been stellar through his first 5 seasons, has the potential to get even better, and that's scary. If he shows the same growth that ARod showed over his second 5 years in the league, you will be amazed at the numbers you will see. I will get into that shortly.
Now let's discuss the positions that they play. Most experts agree that 1st base is a little easier on the body than 3rd base is. Combine the fact that ARod is 5 years older and playing a position that is harder on the body, and you can only conclude that ARod is more likely to get injured. You can, however, make a case that 1st base is a position in which a player is more likely to be involved in a collision with a player running down the line. We all saw what happened to Derek Lee in the recent past.
As far as fantasy depth goes, I think we would all agree that 1st base is a deeper position than 3rd base when drafting talent for your fantasy team. However, 3rd base is not a position that one would call "weak", so regardless of whether you take a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman with your first pick, there will be guys left to be taken at either position when the pick comes back around to you. You may be sitting a little better if you were to take the stud 3rd baseman first, but not by much.
Now let's get into the numbers. Since Pujols has only been in the league for 5 years to ARod's 10 years of service, I decided to take a hard look at ARods numbers in two lump sums. I divided his stats into two blocks. His first 5 years and his second 5 years. During ARod's first full 5 years in the league, he hit 184 home runs. During his second 5 years, he hit 240. That's a growth of 56 home runs the second 5 seasons of his career. That gives him a total of 424 home runs in his first full 10 seasons in the league. Add the 5 he hit in the 48 games he played in '95 and you have a total of 429 coming into this season.
Pujols has hit 201 home runs in his first 5 seasons. If he were to show the same growth over the next 5 years as ARod did, he would hit 257 home runs over the next 5 seasons. That would give him a total of 458 home runs in the same 10 year stretch that ARod hit 424. That's a difference of 34 home runs.
Now let's talk batting average. In ARod's first 10 seasons in the majors, he's hit .300 or less 5 times. He's a career .306 hitter at the time of this printing. Pujols has never hit below .314, and has hit .329 or better in 4 of his first 5 seasons and has a career batting average of .332 at the time of this printing. Pujols is also on pace to score 50 more runs in his first 10 seasons than ARod has.
Check out the difference in double production. Over ARod's 10 year career, he has hit 342 doubles. Pujols has hit 231 in half the time. Double that total and he's projected to hit 462 doubles over the same 10 year period as ARod. That's a difference of 120 doubles. That's a big difference for fantasy players who use 2B, TB, Slug Pct, OPS, etc.......That tells me that Pujols hits more line drives that can split outfielders than ARod does. ARod gets more air under the ball and some of them get caught. Pujols hits them flat and hard.
The biggest factor in my choice of Pujols over ARod would be the strikeout totals. Pujols in on a pace to strikeout 688 times over his first 10 seasons. ARod has struck out 1288 times over his first 10 seasons. That's a difference of 600 K's! There is no doubt who puts the ball in play at a better clip. Advantage Pujols!
Personally, I would not be disappointed if either of these guys were to land on my fantasy team. They are both stellar hitters and play on good teams that score a lot of runs. While I think that ARod is one of the best hitters the league has to offer, I'd have to say that Pujols is, without a doubt, the best. When the pick comes to me during the draft, if Pujols is still on the board, he's mine. He's at the top of my list, and should be for a long time to come.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to post comments or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com
Have a good one!
TP a.k.a. Commish
JDIZZLE'S TAKE ON THE MATTER
Let me start off by saying to Tony...."thanks for leaving me something to say." When I heard what this week's topic would be, I was mulling everything you said in my head....except for one thing: supporting cast. While Pujols and AROD both have great supporting casts, I think that the organization for which Pujols plays is going to be better for him in the long run. The St. Louis Cardinals have a younger core of players surrounding Pujols than AROD does. This is going to cause Pujols to get more chances to swing the bat and thus, more chances to help his team AND YOUR FANTASY TEAM win. I will also say that AROD has been on 3 teams in his 10 year career and has had his moments of slumping...but Pujols is as consistent as they come. Look at AROD's average right now, for instance, compared to Pujols. If you are in a keeper league, Pujols is already kept, but if your league is considering moving to a keeper league and you have Pujols, make a ploy right now for a keeper league and keep Pujols for as long as he has a bat in his hand. I know the lucky stiff in our H2H Keeper League is drooling at the prospect of keeping him on his roster year in, year out. AROD's owner may be looking at having to drop him in a few years. That's my take, take it or leave it.
JDIZZLE (A.K.A. JDIZZLE)
posted by Fantasy O Zone at 9:54 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home