"Issue Number 5"- Midpoint Strategy

This week's question from The Fantasy Man is the following:

Since every fantasy manager out there is different and now that we are almost at the midway point, what are YOUR specific strategy or strategies that you are applying to help your team make a run to the top of the standings, or to stay atop of the standings?


The JDizzle's 6th Place Outlook:

Hey all of you fantasy guys and dolls out there, I hope everyone is having a safe and happy summer so far. Being a teacher and having all the time off to keep up with my fantasy team is great. Enough blab, let's get it started.

At this point in the life of your league (most leagues anyway), most of your waiver wires are depeleted except for a Brad Wilkerson, Marcus Thames, Chris Shelton, David Bush, Joe Blanton types. While these players may be upgrades at certain positions for you, don't try and replace a slumping starter with a waiver wire fill-in (except for one...but we'll get to that below).

Most owners, by the mid-point, know their strengths and weaknesses. Owners are willing to trade their strengths for your strengths. I have made a couple of moves like this to get players like Papelbon, Hafner, Kenny Rogers, Nomar and others to shore up my pitching and offense. Trades are the way to go at this point. Find a manager who has what you need. For example, if you need a third baseman, make sure he has two good ones and that one of them isn't his/her UTIL spot. Deal your strengths for their strengths. Don't send trades that are ridiculous either, something in the vein of Doug Davis for Scott Rolen might send another manager to the post board to bash your reputation all over cyberspace. Like TP says...you've got to give to get.

I'll leave you with this, if these players are still available on your waiver wire and you need help, go get them right now. This is, in essence, my midseason waiver-wire team.

C-Russell Martin (future of Dodger's catching duties)

1B-Brad Wilkerson (K's will hurt you, but 13Hrs looks nice)

2B-Jose Castillo (played quite well for Pirates, even though power outbust two weeks ago is more of a mirage than a reality)

3B-Brandon Inge (more homers than Aramis Ramirez, Hank Blalock, and Miggy Cabrera, but that .228 average hurts....ouch)

SS-Freddy Sanchez (another Pirates infielder who is picking it up...no power, all average)

OF-Matt Kemp (He's the real deal, get him in your starting position-----here's the line....19 Games, 7 HR, 18 RBI, .339 AVG, 4SB, 1.090 OPS....you make the choice!!!!!!!!!)

P-Scott Olsen (2.76 ERA, .095 WHIP, 4 Wins, in 32.2 innings for Florida in the last month)

Hope these comments help.

JDizzle--------------Listen to Further Seems Forever

TP's Strategy Advise:

Now that we're halfway through the season, fantasy managers should be spending a little time performing an assessment of their team, to find their strengths and weaknesses. Take a little time to figure out what you can do to make your team better. If you are at the bottom of the standings, you may need to make some wholesale changes to try to boost your performance and give yourself a shot at the playoffs. If you are at the top of the standings, you may need to make a couple of subtle changes to boost your results in a couple of specific areas while not sacrificing too much in other areas. If you're somewhere in the middle, you may need to work out some multi-player deals in order to boost yourself in a couple of areas that you are lacking. The first step though is to always perform a self assessment.

Once you have done that, now you can start looking for ways to upgrade. Always go to the waiver wire to see what you can do. I check the waiver wire every day to see if someone gave up on a guy that I think will have a good second half and will be an upgrade for me. For instance, I have Jeff Kent who went on the DL three weeks ago. I saw Freddy Sanchez on the wire and picked him up to fill in while Kent was out. He's played so well and boosted my team to the point that I'm still playing him in matchups that I need average and hits. He's had double digit hits every week I've played him. Can't hardly take that out of your lineup. The bottom line is that you can always find someone who's hot at the time to fill in for a couple of weeks. Spend time on the waiver wire.

As far as trading goes, you have to do a few things to work out good trades. First, you have to know what you need. Second, you have to spend a little time assessing the other teams to see what they need. Third, you have to try to find teams that have both what you need, and need what you have to give. This will narrow down your search for teams that you could work out a deal with. Then, send them a proposal, but make it a fair trade. Let them know that you're willing to give them what they need, as long as they're willing to give in return. In my league, all of the managers are friends of mine. They are all available for me if I need to give them a call to discuss trades. This makes life so much easier. You can accomplish a lot in a few minutes on the phone. When I'm serious about trades, I always make the phone call and let them know. I know that this is not always the case, so if you're negotiating trades by email be patient. It can take many offers and counter-offers before a deal will get done.

I'm currently sitting in first place in my league, and while I like my team, I know that I need a boost in Home Run production. I rank 8th in the league in home runs hit. I've got a bunch of doubles hitters that don't hit a lot of home runs. I have a good core in the infield, but I need an outfielder that will boost my home run numbers. I have the top pitching staff in the league, ranking first, second, or third in every pitching category, so I know I have pitching to give. I also have average to give, as my team is tops in batting average so far this season. I have a lot of average guys that don't have a ton of power. I've been targeting teams that have depth in the outfield and are short on starting pitching. There are three teams in the league that I feel I can work out a deal with that can give us both a boost. So I've been sending trade offers to all three of them and are currently in negotiation with two of them. I know that I can get an offer done that will help both sides, but the key is patience. Play the game, listen to what the other manager wants, and try to help both of you. If you send ridiculous offers, people won't take you seriously. You'll end up not being able to work any trades out because guys will shut you out. Don't be that guy. I hate that guy. And there's one in every league. You look at his trade offers and laugh because they're so ridiculous. It gets to the point that you don't even respond to them anymore......

Just remember the following and you can make the necessary changes to your team that will boost your production.

Always check the waiver wire for steals. If you're not checking it every day, you should be.
Know what you need and what you are willing to give for it in a trade.
Target managers that need what you want and have what you need.
Send fair trade offers and counter offers. If you really want a certain player, tell them.
BE PATIENT!

It's no secret in my league what I'm looking for and what I'm willing to give. I have openly communicated that to the rest of the league. I want a power hitting outfielder and I have many quality starters that I'm willing to deal for one. I've been sending offers and receiving them. A deal will get done, I'm sure of it.

I'm in a league with a bunch of managers that don't typically like to trade a lot anyway, so making a deal is exceptionally hard. It seems to be very difficult to make a trade in my league. So far this season, there have only been three trades go through in the whole league. A couple of two for two deals, and a three for three deal. That's it. This is a lot less trade traffic than you typically see in a baseball league. That makes the task even harder.

Every fantasy manager will have different needs to fill but there is always a way to work out a deal that will help give you the boost that you need, if you're willing to work at it. Your needs will be different than mine, but a little work and number crunching will enable you to go out and get what you need to get the necessary boost you're looking for. Study your team, but more importantly, study your opponents team. If he has three stud outfielders and only needs three, why would you send him a trade offer that would be giving him another one that he can't use? Assess his needs and send him offers that give him a boost where he needs it. It will be more appealing to him and he'll take you seriously because of it. And of course, always check the waiver wire. A guy in my league got Nick Swisher off the waiver wire this season because another manager gave up on him too early. He's been a stud ever since. Guy's kicking himself in the butt every day because of that move. But the other manager got a huge boost for nothing. I actually put a waiver request in for him but got beat out by another manager. If I could have picked him up, I wouldn't have the outfield power problem I have now, so it pays to be paying attention.

Well, that's it for now. Feel free to post to the tagboard, or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com.

TP


Scott's Strategy Advise:

Well, that's a really good question. I won't reveal ALL my secrets,
but there are a few things I like to do over the course of a year. Right
now, I have done a lot of waiver activity this year. I have seen the likes of
J. Vidro/C. Shelton/C. Blake/M. Maroth/D. Lowe/O. Vizquel/K. Youkilis/M.
Alou/B. McCann, with others, maximize their value for me. I've kept
all that have stayed very productive, and let go/traded others after I had
utilized their stellar play to the limit. I ALWAYS watch the waiver
wire and do my research on who's up-and-coming, who's slumping, and who is a
potential breakout player. Also, I try to achieve "balance" on my
team. I feel I have great SP/RP, a balanced offense with power guys and
SB/Runs/avg./OBP guys as well. I feel balance is the key to winning in
these leagues, since the competition is so tough. You have to fill
your roster with guys that fit all your playing categories, and also achieve
the depth you need to account for days off/DL time/fluctuations in
hitting/pitching stats as regulars struggle.

Finally, I always do all of this(for the most part) early on in the
season. I establish my team, achieve my balance through trades/waiver wire
wonders, and try to time it so that all of that comes together for the strech
run/playoffs. You won't be successful 100% of the time, but over time
you'll get really good at making your team competitive on a yearly
basis. I've never prided myself on winning titles as much as I have being up
near the top every year when all is said and done. My success in
baseball/football/basketball leagues is based on what I just said(and
some good luck!!), and as long as you stay sharp, do your research, be
aggressive in trading and MOST IMPORTANTLY take chances on instinct/gut-you'll do
great more times than you struggle.

Scott

"Issue Number 4"- Who's gonna get hot? Who's gonna cool off?

This week the FantasyMan asks, "With some players off to great starts and some players off to terrible starts, who are the players that will either tear it up for the second half or crap it up for the second half?? Each of you pick one for each!"

JDIZZLE'S BIASED PICKS.....

My first pick for who is off to a slow start is a biased one....probably because he is currently manning the 1B position on my underachieving team: Mark Teixeira of the Texas Rangers. With Mark being my first pick in our 10-team draft, those 144RBIs, 43 Hrs, and .301 avg last year had me drooling. So far his numbers have been far from that....6 Hrs, 30 RBIs and a .299 avg. Arlington has yet to heat up and Teixeira has just starting getting those extra base hits and RBI'S. He is a doubles machine lately and is starting to come around. Because of his slow start, I had to jettison Chase Utley/Chipper Jones for Travis Hafner/Nomar Garciaparra. With room for movement at the 2B position (I also have Felipe Lopez) this was a must. But if Teixeira and Hafner both get going at the same time.....watch out! So Teixeira owners....keep holding out, he'll come around and when he does, you can tell all of the other owners in your league 3 beautiful words: "Told Ya So!"

My pick for who will most certainly cool off for the second half is not such an easy task. But after looking over all of the canditates: Corey Patterson, Aaron Harang, Kenny Rogers, etc, I have to go with TP on this one....Bronson Arroyo. He just can not, and will not keep up with those numbers. While his ERA is sure to rise, his win total may peak out at about 14-15, ERA around 3.90 and 1.28 WHIP, not bad numbers, but not a top 10 major league pitcher. Hold on to him, but don't get discouraged if he gets knocked around in the coming weeks.

I'm outta here....JDIZZLE
Listen to Mae

TP's Picks:

This is a good question because it's a topic that all fantasy managers struggle with over the course of the season. We're always looking at who's hot and who's not....We're constantly making predictions about guys and trying to make trades to get the most out of who we have while trying to get the most value in return. We're always looking for the cold guy that you can get cheap while he's down while not giving up alot for him, and we're always hoping that the guys will heat up at the right time and send us to the championship.

There are a few guys that I've been keeping a close eye on this season that have gotten off to slow starts but I think will heat up in the second half. I can sit here and name guys like Richie Sexton, Aramis Ramirez, Cliff Lee, Brad Lidge, Jimmy Rollins, Todd Helton, and Jeff Kent. All of these are guys that I think will pick it up a little in the second half......BUT the guy that sticks out in my head the most is Andy Pettitte. Here's a guy that has really struggled so far and I think will pick it up for a couple of reasons. The biggest reason is Roger Clemens. I think that Pettitte has always needed a guy with more experience than him to guide him through the season. Since Clemens hasn't been playing, Pettitte has had to take on more of a mentoring role with the young Houston pitching staff. I think that Pettitte will benefit from Clemens coming back because Roger will assume the leadership role among the pitching staff and Andy will just be able to pitch. I think that this alone will benefit Andy Pettitte. And when you look at Andy's numbers so far, you have to assume that he will pick it up at some point. He's has alot more talent than the numbers suggest.

There are also guys that have been tearing it up so far that I think will cool off a little. Guys like S. Hillenbrand, E. Renteria, E. Byrnes, B. Penny, V. Wells, S. Ponson, and A. Rios are all guys that have been hot so far that I think will cool off down the stretch. The name that sticks out the most for me though is Bronson Arroyo. This guy is 7-2 with a 2.40 ERA after spending the last two years with ERA's over 4.02 while pitching for the powerful Red Sox. I think his numbers this season are directly attributed to the fact that he's now pitching in the NL where hitters haven't had a good look at him. I think in the second half when the players start to get used to facing him, he's gonna get knocked around and hard. I see his numbers taking a huge hit as hitters get some at bats against him and I think that before this season is over, his ERA will be back over 4.00 and he'll end up with a .500 record.

Well, that's it for now. Feel free to post questions to the tagboard, add your comments, or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com.

TP